A targeted military operation that turns into a conflagration
According to Mexican authorities, the assault was launched at dawn on February 22, after several weeks of aerial and electronic surveillance of the mountainous area of Tapalpa, where « El Mencho » was believed to be hiding in a secure ranch with a small circle of guards. A first special forces helicopter dropped units as close as possible to the complex, while armored vehicles and drones blocked access roads to prevent any escape or reinforcements from the CJNG.
When the military attempted to enter the compound, they came under heavy fire from long-range weapons and assault rifles, triggering a confrontation that lasted about an hour. According to a senior defense official, « El Mencho » was shot while attempting to move to an annex building, before being recovered alive but seriously wounded and transferred by helicopter to the capital, where he died in flight.
At the same time, security forces arrested several men described as key lieutenants of the CJNG and seized a large stockpile of military weapons, bulletproof vests, and satellite phones used to coordinate the cartel’s operations. The Mexican presidency confirmed that intelligence sharing with the United States, including geolocation and interception data, had been instrumental in locating the cartel leader and planning the raid.
In the hours following the operation, CJNG cells retaliated in a coordinated manner in at least three states : Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán, by setting buses on fire, setting up roadblocks, and targeting police patrols. Schools were closed, businesses shut their doors, and several strategic roads were blocked, highlighting the cartel’s capacity for disruption despite the loss of its leader.
Who was « El Mencho » and what is the CJNG?
Unlike other drug lords, « El Mencho » cultivated an image of a discreet leader, shunning cameras and social media, to the point that authorities had very few recent images of him. Originally from a rural area of Michoacán marked by poverty and emigration, he is believed to have worked as a farm laborer and street vendor in the United States before being deported following convictions for drug trafficking in the 1990s.
Back in Mexico, he joined the Sinaloa cartel and then the Milenio group, taking advantage of its weakening to impose his own structure: the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. The CJNG quickly distinguished itself with a strategy combining aggressive territorial expansion, systematic corruption of local authorities, and staged violence, with videos of heavily armed commandos circulating on social media and threatening messages sent to its rivals.
Economically, the cartel has established itself as one of the main producers and exporters of methamphetamine and fentanyl to the United States, while controlling cocaine routes from South America and diversifying its activities into extortion, kidnapping, and fuel theft. Washington has placed it at the center of its anti-drug strategy, offering up to $15 million for the capture of « El Mencho » and designating the CJNG as one of the most dangerous transnational criminal threats to North American security.
The family clan played a central role in the cartel’s structure: his son, Rubén Oseguera González, alias « El Menchito, » considered his heir apparent, was extradited to the United States, while his daughter, Jessica Johanna, was convicted of money laundering linked to CJNG revenues. This family dimension now complicates succession scenarios, as several factions may claim legitimacy to take up the torch in the name of continuity of the Oseguera clan.
An open succession and the risk of prolonged conflagration
In the short term, the death of « El Mencho » opens a period of great uncertainty for the CJNG, with several contenders for succession already emerging from its strongholds in Jalisco, Veracruz, and Michoacán. Analysts suggest the possibility of a collegial leadership, with the rise of regional commanders, which could make the cartel less centralized but more unpredictable and fragmented.
On the ground, people living in areas under the CJNG’s influence fear being caught between security force offensives and internal score-settling or attacks by rival groups, such as certain factions linked to the Sinaloa cartel. The risk is that of a « balkanization » of the criminal landscape, with a proliferation of smaller but equally violent groups seeking to control ports, border corridors, or synthetic drug production areas.
For the Mexican government, this operation is being presented as a major victory, likely to strengthen security cooperation with the United States and Canada in the context of regional discussions on fentanyl and migration flows. However, several experts warn against the illusion of a « final blow » to organized crime, pointing out that the elimination of iconic leaders, as in the case of « El Chapo, » has not been enough to reduce violence in the long term, which is often reignited by succession struggles.
The challenge for Mexico City will be to take advantage of this window of opportunity to regain institutional control in the regions dominated by the CJNG by strengthening local forces, the justice system, and public services. Otherwise, the vacuum left by « El Mencho” could quickly be filled by new criminal actors. In the meantime, the Mexican population is watching this turning point with concern, torn between relief at seeing one of the most powerful drug lords fall and fear of a new spiral of violence.
